[November 10, 2000]
Reports are coming in from all over the country of teachers whose first-grade students were able to use butterfly ballots without a hitch. Here's one of the first: Ballot Child's Play for 8-Year-Olds W
Here's a list of each state's electors, courtesy of Orvetti.com W
As a lawyer, as a Florida lawyer, and as a Florida lawyer with an interest in politics, I know a little bit about Florida election law, which will eventually determine how to resolve the questions about the presidential election. Since Tuesday, I've been saying that the so-called "irregularities" in Palm Beach won't be sufficient grounds for a judge to order a new vote - they won't even come close. Normally, judges hate to touch a completed election, unless there's a clear showing of fraud. The National Review's Dave Kopel agrees:
The Florida judiciary has already addressed the issue of post-election claims about ballot confusion, and the precedent is unfavorable to those who want the election overturned.
Judges have decided case after case on this point, and the result is clear: there will be no re-vote. W
[November 9, 2000]
Democracy Subverted: As the recount draws to a slow close, one of the issues flogged by the Democrats is the supposed ballot confusion in Palm Beach County, where the layout of the ballot is supposed to have confused 3,00 people into voting for Buchanan and 19,000 more people into double-punching their ballots, rendering them invalid.
This is the final Hail Mary pass from Gore, whose lifetime ambition to win the White House is slipping away before his eyes. The fact is that nothing special or unusual happened in Palm Beach County, and contrary to Gore campaign claims, there is no basis to use Palm Beach County to undermine the carefully-verified results in Florida.
The ballot used in Tuesday in Palm Beach County was a “butterfly ballot,” in which the candidates appear on both sides of a two-page spread, and the voter punches out the desired choice in the middle. Butterfly ballots are common all over the country, and are even used in Cook County, Illinois – home of Gore campaign chairman William Daley. The ballot was drawn up by the Democratic Supervisor of Elections for the county, approved by the state Director of Elections, and both verified that it met all the requirements of Florida law. The ballot was then published in the newspaper in advance, and no one claimed it was confusing then. Only after it became apparent that Gore had lost Florida did they challenge its validity.
The supposed evidence? Three thousand votes cast for Pat Buchanan and nineteen thousand ballots rejected because they were double-punched. But it’s clear, upon further review of the facts, that the ballot was perfectly clear to most voters and that the results are valid as counted. Here’s why.
First, the Presidential vote was precisely consistent with the U.S. Senate race. In both cases, voters chose the Democrat over the Republican, 62% to 36%. The Senate vote was 269,000 for Nelson, 154,000 for McCollum. The Presidential vote was virtually identical: 269,000 for Gore and 152,000 for Bush. If anything, the lesser numbers for Bush than for McCollum show that the discarded ballots probably hurt him more than they did Gore.
Second, the Buchanan votes aren’t unusual at all for Palm Beach County. In the Republican primary in 1996, Buchanan got almost 9,000 votes, even though Bob Dole had already wrapped up the nomination. Palm Beach County is also the only place in Florida where Reform Party registration actually grew during that four-year span. Under these conditions, Buchanan should be angry that Bush and Gore took votes away from him, rather than the other way around.
Finally, it’s a dirty secret of all elections that invalid ballots are excluded in just about every election, as the law requires that they must be. This is no less true in Palm Beach than anywhere else. For example, in 1996, roughly 15,000 ballots were double-punched, despite lower turn-out. In every election, voters make mistakes on their ballots – but in Palm Beach on Nov. 7, most voters managed to successfully cast a vote for Bush, Gore, or a third party candidate. Just a small fraction were “confused.”
What happened in Palm Beach is normal, legal, and part of the sticky process that we call democracy. Al Gore and his minions – including Daley, Congressman Robert Wexler, and the Reverend Jesse Jackson – have launched a propaganda campaign to try to fool the country into thinking otherwise, so that Gore can fulfill his life-long dream of serving as President. They propose to erase the results of November 7 because a tiny fraction of the Palm Beach voters couldn’t follow directions and VOTE FOR JUST ONE. Gore’s forces mouth the words “will of the people,” as rallying cry to subvert it. If they succeed, our ballot boxes may never be safe again. W
HELP WANTED
Motivated volunteers to assist vote re-count monitoring. Must be willing to travel to Florida immediately. Duties will consist of shouting random numbers at election workers conducting re-count. To apply, contact the Gore campaign immediately.
# # # W
I wonder if this is true:
Rep. Robert Wexler, a Democratic congressman who represents parts of the area, said he witnessed the confusion himself.
"I saw it with my own eyes. Hundreds of people left the ballot box and became hysterical in the parking lots when they realized they had probably voted for Pat Buchanan," he told CNN's "Larry King Live."
Because all these people crying hyterically in the polling place parking lot, rending their garments and gnashing their teeth, somehow never got captured by any of the news cameras covering the voting on Tuesday. Could it be that Wexler is... exaggerating? W
[November 8, 2000]
The question now is, who won? At approximately 4:00am today, the vote count in Florida stood approximately as follows:
Bush lead over Gore: 1,700
Nader total: 96,800
Browne total: 18,800
Buchanan total: 17, 356
Phillips total: 4,300
Hagelin total: 2,287
In other words…. Every third party candidate scored enough votes in Florida to be the nationwide spoiler. As I’ve already said, third parties won’t be taken seriously until they cost someone the election. No matter who wins, Ralph Nader’s followers will have the undivided attention of the Democratic loyalists in the next Presidential election – they can’t afford to ignore the Greens again. Watch for the Democratic Party to swing to the left.
At the same time, if the recount swings the state, and the ultimate result, to Gore, then the Republicans have to look long and hard at those 19,000 Libertarian votes that might have been theirs for the asking. If a failure to attract a measly two thousand Libertarians to the Republican ticket means another four years in exile, then the party will have to do some serious soul-searching.
Then again, both parties have to look long and hard at the 2,2,00 votes gathered by the Natural Law Party. No major platform revisions required – just a little lip service to transcendental meditation, and voila! Instant victory.
No matter who wins, the major parties will have to take a long, serious look at adopting positions to win back these third party voters, some of who just might have cost them the White House. So who wins? Those courageous third-party voters, whose voices have now been heard. W
Did anyone see Bill Press on Crossfire? I'm wondering if he kept his word:
Dear Reader: Save this column. If I’m wrong, I’ll eat it on "Crossfire" on November 8.
While it's unclear whether Bush or Gore will be the 43rd President, Press' predictions clearly failed to hit the mark. Bush led the polls since the debates, gained an upswell of support by discussing the issues, rarely if ever spoke the word "temple," and didn't do most of what Press thought he would. Yum, yum! W
With a tin ear for innuendo, the Boston Globe prematurely cried: It's Bush in a tight one! W
The close vote just might be a good thing:
According to the fisherman, the shark’s hard wiring is so primitive that it will still snap its jaws shut, even if it is disconnected from its body, keeping it a threat until the last bit of life buzzes out of its neurons. That’s what I thought of this morning when I woke up and found out that, contrary to what I had thought at 2:17 a.m., George W. Bush was not officially the 43rd President of the United States of America.
Good readin'. W
Recount! Who'd have thunk it? Florida, it seems, has been a fickle mistress this year.
Item of note: The networks alleged that Tampa Bay was the big swing vote fo the state. This means, that instead of soccer moms, Reagan Democrats, or undecided voters, next cycle's chic demographic will be - my parents.
I think that's a good thing. My folks are smart, better informed than most, and really have the best interests of the country at heart. Next cycle, let's save billions of dollars and a deluge of media attention, and just let my folks pick our next leader. (Mom and Dad - thanks for voting!) W
Florida puts Bush over the top. I was wrong, wrong, wrong about the landslide. But I am so relieved that Al Gore failed in his all-consuming lifelong ambition. It's now almost 3:00am, and I'm going to bed. W
[November 7, 2000]
>> >From the 2 pm exit polls / Voter News Service:
>>
>>Presidential Race
>>
>>FLORIDA: Gore +3
>>NEW HAMPSHIRE: Bush +1
>>WEST VIRGINIA: Bush +9
>>OHIO: Bush +10
>>ILLINOIS: Gore +6
>>MAINE: Gore +4
>>MICHIGAN: Gore +4
>>MISSOURI: Bush +3
>>ARKANSAS: Bush +3
>>TENNESSEE: Bush +3
>>PENNSYLVANIA: Even
>>NEW JERSEY: Gore +15
>>MINNESOTA: Gore +1
>>NEW MEXICO: Bush +2
>>WISCONSIN: Bush +2
>>CALIFORNIA: Gore +17
>>
>>On Senate Races:
>>
>>FLORIDA: Nelson (D) +6
>>VIRGINIA: Allen (R) +3
>>DELAWARE: Carper (D) +10
>>NEW JERSEY: Corzine (D) +7
>>NEW YORK: Clinton (D) +10
>>MICHIGAN: Stabinow (D) +2
>>MISSOURI: Ashcroft (R) and Carnahan (D) Even
>>MINNESOTA: Dayton (D) +3
>>WASHINGTON: Cantwell (D) +2
>>MONTANA: Burns (R) -3
>>NEBRASKA: Kerry (D) +2
This is probably my last report for the evening. Go vote. W
> Subject: Last Superfreak Quote Before Election Day
>
> From George Will's Sunday column in the Washington Post, supporting Bush
> for President and warning of a Gore Administration which would "swarm[]
> with people who share Al Gore's bossiness" and his "regulatory itch":
>
> For the official World Series magazine, Gore and Bush provided written
> answers to some questions pertaining to baseball, including, "What do you
> think of domed stadiums?"
>
> Gore's complete answer was: "The design and construction of domed
> stadiums--in Seattle (the Kingdome was the first free-standing cement
dome
> ever built), Houston (the Astrodome was the first stadium to use
> Astroturf) and Minnesota (the Metrodome is the only stadium in the U.S.
> whose roof is suspended without beams or rods--it's supported by air
> pressure), for example--have been feats of architectural and engineering
> excellence. But the real measure of any stadium, domed or otherwise, is
> how much fun you have inside."
>
> Bush's complete answer was: "I like to go to baseball games outdoors."
>
> Let's vote.
> W
Why are you reading this? Go vote! W
[November 6, 2000]
It all comes down to this. Tomorrow, Americans will go to the polls and choose their leaders in the White House and in Congress. Many think this will be the closest election in decades, at all levels of government. Some think the country will take a dramatic turn, either to the left or to the right. Nothing is guaranteed at this moment.
WOIFM readers are, for the most part, a pretty well informed bunch, even the ones who are usually wrong. (You know who you are.) Mostly, you’ve already made up your minds, or have a solid decision-making process in place. None of you need me to tell you who to vote for. But I will anyway, as if you had any doubt.
President: I’ve already endorsed Harry Browne for U.S. President. Browne and the Libertarian Party represent the better parts of American nature – a yearning for freedom; a trust of all citizens to conduct their own affairs; a disdain for any who would impose their will upon any free person. The Libertarian Party organization is not perfect; neither is the man they have chosen to bear their standard. But in comparison to the rest of the field, they shine. They are the only party right now that really understands the words of Jefferson:
I have sworn upon the altar of God eternal hostility against every form of tyranny over the mind of man.
The platforms of the other parties – not just Republican and Democrat, but Green, Natural Law, Constitution, and Socialist – are all, to varying degrees, a list of ways for politicians to expand their control over you. The Libertarian platform is a list of ways for the government to cede power back to its rightful holders – the people. If you love freedom, you have only one candidate on your side this year – Harry Browne.
U.S. House and Senate: For the U.S. House of Representatives, in Virginia’s District 8, where I live, I endorse Ron Crickenberger, of the Libertarian Party. Crickenberger is the political director of the party, and adheres to the principles of freedom and small government that form the party’s platform. If you’re in another Congrssional district, look for the Libertarian candidate – there’s one in over half the Congressional races.
For U.S. Senate in Virginia, I recommend George Allen. There’s no Libertarian running for Senate here, and Allen has at least promised to support efforts to eliminate the marriage penalty and the death tax. W
Election 2000 Predictions: For a long time, I have believed that the returns for Congress would follow those of the White House. A Bush victory would lead to a continued Republican control of Congress, and a Gore victory would signal a Democratic resurgence that would lead to their party recapturing the House if not the Senate. I still think that one party will win it all tomorrow, but it won’t be for the coattails.
First of all, keep in mind that I’ve expected this result since June of 1998. I think that the energy of the Republican base, combined with sagging Democratic turnout – especially in those rainy toss-up states – tilts the electoral map heavily towards Bush-Cheney. Of the toss-ups (per MSNBC) I expect Gore to win only Pennsylvania, and I’ll even throw in Maine and New Hampshire for kicks. Bush will take Florida, West Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, New Mexico, and Nevada before the polls close on the West Coast. This puts him at a total of 308 electoral votes to 158 for Gore. (Alaska and Hawaii are foregone conclusions.)
Then the land starts to slide. When late west coast voters realize that Gore is locked out of the White House, they will defect to Nader in big numbers. They’ve been waiting for this moment to make their decision, and they will, titling California, Washington, and Oregon away from Gore and into the GOP column.
Final tally: Bush, 380, Gore, 158.
Due to the late defections from Gore to Nader, the Green candidate will pass the 5% threshold, snagging 6% of the popular vote. Gore will take only 43%, leaving the remaining 51% for Bush.
As for Congress, the Bush landslide will have little to no effect. Over 99% of incumbents – both sides – will win re-election. The only shifting seats we’ll see will be the open seats, and for the most part, they’ll be a wash. Net House results: Democrites gain two. Senate races will also see some open seats swap parties, but that too will largely wash. More incumbents will fall – Chuck Robb and Rod Grams – but evenly from both parties. Net Senate results: Democrites gain one. W
I cannot caption this photo. W
To the victors go the spoils: Wildcats prove they're for real with wacky victory over Michigan
Northwestern (7-2, 5-1 Big Ten) jumped nine spots in the poll, while Michigan (6-3, 4-2) dropped eight spots to No. 20. The victory also gives Northwestern a share of the conference lead with Purdue, which was off Saturday. The Boilermakers have the edge for the Rose Bowl tiebreaker, having beaten the Wildcats.
Looks like a Citrus Bowl holiday again! W
[November 5, 2000]
Holy cow. According to Drudge:
XXXXX DRUDGE REPORT XXXXX SUN NOV 5, 2000 17:50:29 ET XXXXX
BUSH INTERNALS REVEALED: LEADING GORE BY 5% IN FLORIDA; CALIFORNIA BY 2%
**Exclusive**
The DRUDGE REPORT has obtained the Bush campaign's most recent internal polling data.
The confidential data commissioned by Bush shows the Texas Governor topping Vice President Gore by 5% in Florida, 9% in Michigan and by 2% in California, within the margin of error.
The fresh results have given senior Bush staffers a deepened sense of confidence going into Tuesday's election.
Bush's internal polling shows the governor up 4% in Washington state and up 10% in Missouri. One sour spot for Bush: Pennsylvania, where he finds himself down 2% into the homestretch.
Tommorrow, I'll post a recap of my endorsements and a list of my predictions. W
There's been a bunch of noise about how this election will alter the composition of the Supreme Court. Gore has relied on the scare tactic of saying that the next President will determine whether the court upholds or overturns Roe v. Wade. After looking a little bit under the surface, even the Washington Post has its doubts about whether this is true.
There are simply too many variables, ranging from uncertainty over when or if a justice will leave the court to the fact that justices have a habit of straying far from the policy predilections of the presidents who appointed them.
As the article points out, the oldest justices on the court, and hence the ones most likely to retire in the next four years, were all Republican appointees. Only Breyer and Ginsburg were Clinton appointees, and neither has given any hint that they are ready to go. Stevens, the oldest, was a Ford appointee. All the rest were appointed by Nixon, Reagan, or Bush. If Roe was to be overturned, it would have happened by now.
As it stands, the only likely shift on the court would come if Gore is elected, since he has promised to appoint liberal activists in the mold of Thurgood Marshall and Earl Warren. A Bush presidency, on the other hand, would likely preserve the status quo on the court. W
Lura has expressed what can only be called extreme concern over the recent revelation that Gov. Bush has a misdemeanor conviction from 1976 for driving under the influence. She seems to think that his conviction (a word she writes in all caps, throughout her rant) is a decisive factor against him as president. She is less clear on why she thinks so.
Should a candidate for president be excluded from consideration because they have broken the law? By itself, almost no one thinks that. Virtually anyone who is the right age to qualify for the office has done something wrong, sometime. Both Clinton and Gore admit to marijuana use. Bush has obliquely referred to his wild days of youth. I’m sure Nader has puffed the demon weed at least once, and who’s to say what Bradley and McCain have gotten away with? No, it’s not the mere illegality of the act.
Lura places a heavy emphasis on the fact that Bush got caught. To her, then, it’s not the act, but the ability of the actor to evade responsibility, which ought to weigh heavily in casting a vote. To an extent, I agree, but I weigh it in the other column. Bush, when apprehended, took responsibility for his act. He admitted guilt in court, and accepted his punishment without apparent complaint. After a time, he took even greater responsibility when he swore off booze altogether – an act of courage that I admire. I don’t know if I could do the same in his shoes – I can’t even stop biting my nails. Bush’s fourteen years of sobriety impresses me as a personal accomplishment, and to me speaks highly of his character.
Contrast that with our friends on the Democratic side of the aisle. Our less-than-sober Senator Kennedy not only got behind the wheel with a few too many beers in him, he killed a woman in the process, and was able to use his position of power and his family connections to dodge responsibility forever. Yet he is admired by Washington-types as a leader. President Clinton, who has never faced the music for a misdeed unless trapped by DNA evidence, subverted our judicial system with his perjury, has a long trail of abusive behavior towards women, and to this day thinks that Republicans owe him an apology for what he did. And finally, candidate Gore: the iced-tea defense. No controlling legal authority. Never met Maria Hsia. Come on, Al. Even you can’t believe that.
While Bush’s conviction is a black mark on his record, it’s nothing compared to the misdeeds of the current office-holders. Bush admitted long ago that he used to have an alcohol problem. He didn’t tell us the details, and I don’t think he really had to.
As for the fallout, America doesn’t really care about the details. If anything, they’re angry at what they see as dirty tricks by Democratic activists. Hard-core Republicans are more determined than ever to see the end of the Clinton-Gore Interregnum, and will show up at the polls in droves to put an end to it once and for all. W
Bowden Bowl II was not the close game it was cracked up to be acouple of weeks ago, ending with a crushing 54-7 victory of father over son. The banner summed it up the best:
Sometimes it's okay for a parent to spank a child.
Relax, it's just a metaphor. W
